Leading research firm Gartner predicts that Mobile TV will be an opportunity for operator to replace dwindling voice revenue. Mobile TV will become a mainstream service in most developed markets by 2010 with close to half a billion subscribers worldwide.
The marketplace for mobile TV will vary widely by country and will be shared between TV services that are delivered via cellular and broadcast methods. TV services over cellular will grow from 38 million users in 2007 to 356 million in 2010. TV broadcasting will reach 133 million subscribers by 2010 - due in the main to the growing availability of broadcast-enabled phones - with Japan as the region leading the way followed by Western Europe.
The uptake of mobile TV services will grow at a considerable rate over the next few years, but most subscribers will receive mobile TV as part of their mobile subscription, Garner says.
Gartner estimates that only 30 percent of the total number of mobile TV subscribers will ask for the service while 70 percent will receive it as part of their service bundle.
The bundling of Mobile TV services together with questionable early demand for premium content and advertising-funded free TV services will mean that in the short term at least, revenue from mobile TV will be depressed.
In the long run however Gartner predicts that it still has the potential to be a major overall average per revenue per unit (ARPU) component.
Gartner expects TV services over cellular to show revenue of just over USD 100 million in 2006, growing to USD 15 billion by 2010. said Ms Milanesi. Revenue from broadcast TV will grow from USD 200 million to 10.8 billion over the same period.
Consequently, Gartner is advising operators to consider revenue models for mobile TV carefully. According to Ms Milanesi, rather than competing on tariffs, they should instead focus on creating a unique ‘Mobile TV experience’ in order to attract an increasing number of subscribers.
“The most successful operators where mobile TV is concerned will be those that treat it as a long-term opportunity, not a quick fix.”
Mobile TV Subscribers, Worldwide, 2006-2010
Transport Cellular Broadcasting Total
2006 10 942 000 5 972 500 16 914 500
2007 37 76 700 21 872 300 59 640 000
2010 356 058 700 132 692 800 488 751 500
Source: Gartner
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